AI Civilization Investment System
Connects macro, industry, capital and credit signals to investment research decisions.
ACIS ResearchAI文明投资研究院中文METHODOLOGY & INDICATOR LIBRARY
Research Methodology and Indicator Library
A permanent reference for how ACIS Research defines scores, signals and research conclusions.
01Clear definitions02Versioned systems03Consistent standards
CORE SYSTEMS
Core research systems
AI Credit Stress Indicator
Tracks financing costs, credit spreads and debt constraints across the AI value chain. A higher score means greater stress.
Portfolio & Family Wealth Health System
Assesses theme quality, future potential, survival, diversification, valuation discipline, earnings quality, liquidity and downside protection.
Civilization Potential Score
Assesses a technology or industry's decade-long impact, scalability, commercial proof and capital efficiency.
SCORE BANDS
The same number can mean different things
Most quality and cycle scores are positive-direction: higher is stronger. Stress and risk indicators such as AICSI are reverse-direction: higher is riskier. Every report must identify its direction.
80–100Strong / expanding
65–79Healthy / watch
50–64Pressure rising
0–49Weak / high risk
SIGNAL LANGUAGE
Signal and trend language
Healthy
Trend is intact; no material action signal.
Watch
A threshold is approaching or a key variable is weakening.
Alert
Pressure is material and requires closer monitoring.
High risk
Multiple risks are confirmed or a downgrade condition is near.
🟢→🟡 The signal is deteriorating but has not formally entered yellow.
INDICATOR DICTIONARY
Common expressions
- ~
- Approximate reading; market data may change in real time.
- 60–70bp
- Estimated range. 100 basis points (bp) equal one percentage point.
- CDS
- Credit default swap spread. A wider spread usually means the market is pricing greater credit risk.
- CapEx
- Capital expenditure used to build long-lived capacity and infrastructure.
- Backlog
- Contracted orders or commitments not yet recognized as revenue.
- VIX / MOVE
- Expected volatility in US equities / US Treasury bonds.
- DXY
- US Dollar Index against a basket of major currencies.
- What / So What / Now What
- What changed, why it matters, and what to monitor or do next.
GOVERNANCE
Versioning and boundaries
- Every research system carries a version number and revision date.
- A score is a research signal, not a universal rating or an automatic trade instruction.
- Decisions require confirmation across fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, credit and portfolio context.
- Data sources, observation dates and limitations are disclosed in each report.
Last methodology update: 15 August 2026